Galileo was Framed (The Scientific Method)
Once upon a time, scientific progress was made very, very slowly. The people who did it thought of themselves as philosophers. They THOUGHT about stuff. The world, you see, had to be perfect, because it was the creation of a perfect God, so simply thinking about how perfection worked was the way to do science.
Then a guy named Galileo came along, and built a telescope, to LOOK at the planets. That was sort of right out. The philosophers laughed. Then they exploited his natural arrogance and “helped” him pick a fight with the Pope.
Slowly, the tide turned. Experimentation became a great idea, not sacrilege. And the scientific method was born.
It goes like this: Formulate a hypothesis. Design a study, to test that hypothesis. Collect the data, analyze, and decide whether or not you have confirmed the hypothesis.
Here are two hypotheses that have recently been put to the test:
Taking beta-carotene supplements decrease the risk of cancer.
Taking post-menopausal estrogen supplements decreases the risk of heart disease.
There are several factors that are necessary to design a good study. The most important of these is to test only one variable at a time.
For instance, if you want to study the effects of beta-carotene on cancer, you need to control all other variables except beta-carotene use.
Secondly, you need numbers. As in, large numbers. Because some things just happen by chance. The smaller the sample size, the higher the risk that chance will influence your study.
And thirdly, you need some reason to think that your hypothesis might be correct. Remember, for a second, the linoleum floor study. Or the carrots and car accidents. Even if we find great, statistically valid results, our bunk-o-meter starts blinking when we can’t come up with a really good reason for it to be true.
So let’s start with beta-carotene. The basic theory is solid. Anti-oxidants SHOULD protect against cancer. So we have #3. Large, longitudinal, observational studies looked at the question, and suggested that the hypothesis might be right. So we have numbers, #2.
But a funny thing happened when we moved from observational studies, that simply look at use and tabulate results, to randomized, double-blinded, clinical trials. The cancer protection disappeared.
WHY?
Because when we were looking at observational studies, we were looking at people and their habits. And people with a habit of eating lots of colored veggies or taking supplements have other personality traits, as well. They tend to be the folks that take better care of their health, in general. If we randomly assign people to the take-supplements or not-take-supplements groups, we eliminate those other, compounding variables. Which is why #1 is SO important.
The same thing happened with hormone replacement therapy and heart disease. The idea, biochemically, was sound. Long term observational studies of women showed promise. But the clinical trials? Not only didn’t hormones protect against heart disease, but they elevated the risk. And increased the risk of breast cancer and stroke. Again, the differences got chalked up to the patient population–women who care about their health enough to take a pill every day, also tend to take better care of themselves in general.
So, what’s the take home message?
Controlling your variables is the MOST important part of scientific research.
This is the reason that the dietary news changes every day. These studies are really hard to control.
This is the reason that the autism/anti-vax people are convinced. They don’t understand the variable control problem.
So the next time you read a study, take a sec to think about compounding variables. It can be a lot of fun.
Try this one: Red Meat Will Kill You
You have to promise not to read the comments, which, although from normal type people, make some valid points. Then leave me a comment telling me what the compounding variables are. We’ll see if my readership is as smart as I think you are.
I might even award a prize to the best thought out criticism of the study.
Let me have it.
[A housekeeping note: On Friday, I will start a brand new feature of this site--a recurring column called, "The Nefarious History of Motherhood." You don't want to miss out. Tell your friends. It'll be fun.]
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you subscribe to my RSS feed!Related posts:
- Galileo was Framed–The Answer (s)
- Another Really Good Reason Not to Clean
- I’m Confused…
- She Blinded Me with “Science”
- I Always Knew Kids’ TV Was Deadly
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14 Comments
Michele PFM
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 9:44 am
First, I am not going to even begin to think that I can put myself up against a scientist (doctor); however, second, I saw this article a few days ago and my “wonky meter” went off. Here were my thoughts at the time, which may very well be those compounding variables.
Red meat is defined as “beef, pork, bacon, ham, hamburger, hot dogs, liver, pork sausage, steak, and meats in foods such as pizza, stews, and lasagna.” Take away your steak and the beef (assuming just plain super-lean beef), and ever single one of those mentioned red meats is junk food. If you are on a diet of lasagna, pizza, stews, and hot dogs, well, *yeah*, you’re *going* to be at a greater risk for heart disease. The fact that red meat is consumed along with this is *not* the issue here.
Then there is red meat quality. What kind of ground beef goes into meatballs, sausage, lasagna, hot dogs, McDonald’s burgers, etc.? Certainly not quality meat. So, now we have the question, *what kind* of red meat were the subjects eating? Bacon? Again, not considered a nutritious red meat.
The article continues that those who ate the most red meat consumed the equivalent of a quarter-pound hamburger. But are we talking about a quarter-pound of meat mixed in lasagna, a Big Mac, Hamburger Helper? What is the delivery method of the red meat?
Did this study include those who consumed pasture-raised beef, extra-lean beef, and ate them in ways other than slathered in sauce or grease, or just your typical American going through a Burger King drive-thru?
The study claims that those who ate the most “red meat” were at greater risk than those who ate less “red meat.” Well, again, doesn’t it depend on the delivery method? If you compare a meal of a four-ounce strip steak, baked sweet potato fries, and steamed asparagus to a quarter-pounder with cheese, fries, and a coke…well, that’s an equivalent amount of red meat, BUT there is a huge difference in the overall meal.
Processed meats were considered less of a risk in this study. Well, if you are talking about a ham sandwich, you usually are using less meat there and adding vegetables. Not always, of course…huge white bread rolls and tons of mayo knock that out quickly. But, then, it was only “slightly lower.” So is the issue the bad meat, or the meat combined with mayo/ketchup/etc.?
White meat, defined as “turkey, fish, chicken, and chicken mixtures,” are not as frequently featured in junk food as red meat. I’m not saying that is universally true–think chicken nuggets, for instance–but, on the whole, your hot dogs are not turkey dogs and your quarter-pounders are not made from ground chicken. So, again, to analyze all red meat sources, you are going to increase your junk food mixes.
So there’s my long two-cents, written before my morning coffee. Really, when I first saw it a few days ago, I wondered what kind of person would consume a quarter-pound of meat a day, and immediately thought of drive-thru burgers. And, if *that’s* your diet, well, the red meat consumption is the least of your issues…
[Reply]
Wendy
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 9:54 am
This reminds me of a thing recently that said kids who take multivitamins tend to be healthier in general.
But if you’re a mom who religiously gives her kids their Flinstones, aren’t you going to be more interested in their overall diet anyway?
Regarding the meat study:
1. bacon was considered red meat. Even the government agency that makes the stupid food pyramid considers it a fat.
2. hot dogs are red meat? Hot dogs aren’t even meat and should not be considered a consumable good.
3. the amount they are giving is very, very small. most men I know eat far more than this every day. At every meal, even.
If you’re in a group that considers pizza, hamburgers, hot dogs, bacon & sausage to be daily fare… YOU’RE GOING TO DIE. Earlier than most people.
What about the meat eaters who avoid anything fried or processed and eat only lean beef as well as healthy-cooked chicken and fish? What then? Here’s the major problem with this study. They looked at junk food vs. chicken. I don’t think it’s about red meat so much as it is about GREASE. Do the study again with lean healthily prepared beef vs. the same for chicken, then we’ll talk.
Is this what you were looking for? This is what jumped out at me after a quick read. More would come to me if I took more time, I’m sure.
[Reply]
Wendy
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 10:01 am
Adding after reading Michelle’s post….
A quarter pound of meat is only 4 ounces. This is slightly larger than a deck of cards.
The only people I know who eat less than this are vegetarians.
[Reply]
Becca
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 10:01 am
I would agree with the poster above and also add that in order to offset the variables you would have to look at several things.
1. Is the death age ( I can’t think of the right word here) still set at 77 in the U.S.? If this is so, then you would have to look at the parents of the individuals who died. Look at their life expectancy overall in comparison of those around them. (I found the right words, yeah!)
2. Also, does the risk of heart disease or cancer run in their family? Are we looking at a normal group of the population wherein some are going to run a higher risk of heart disease and cancer, or did they choose people based solely on their diet at the time of the study?
3. What was the ratio of race here and how might it play into the study? Asian’s typically have lower risk of heart disease simply b/c they do eat less red meat. African American’s have a higher rate of heart disease and high blood pressure that may simply be related to race, but could also be related to familial dieting patterns.
I hope I have made sense here, these were the first variables that came to me.
[Reply]
Liz
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 11:12 am
The aforementioned posts have already stated the importance of :
1. Quality of food Product
2. Family History
3. Lifestyle
I will add:
4. Exercise
5. Stress
6. Environmental Factors
7. Increased population = increased deaths of cancer & heart disease.
8. Increased life expectancy = Increased diseases of older age.
AND, the statement that pisses me off is the one about how many people DIED (gasp!)
Well, let’s think about that, shall we? 50-71 at the start. 60-81 years old, ten years later.
NOTE; they say during a FOLLOW-UP period people had croaked.
So what they are saying is that people over 65 and many of them being over 81 AT LEAST – this follow-up could have been another 10 years later, for all we know – are going to die.
Well no shit. It’s a little thing we call LIFESPAN.
People have this idea that we should live to 120 if we were only healthy enough… but really, guys, the human body has to wind down sometime and 65-90 years old is about that time. We are way luckier than our species has ever been to live so long and thrive so well.
Not that I don’t think we need to learn how our body works & be healthy… but not like this, through anecdotes and scary one-liners. (oh, you know what “they” say – so true!)
Liz’s last blog post..Dining With the Princesses
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mrsbear
Tuesday, 5th May 2009 at 9:35 pm
I was so not expecting a pop quiz this evening. Try me in the morning when blood is actually flowing to my brain.
d – all of the above?
mrsbear’s last blog post..Toilet Non-Humor and Random Tuesday Thoughts
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Elisa
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 9:30 am
I am SO glad you brought this up. Because people are way too gullible when it comes to “scientific studies”.
Now, about the red meat study: there are variables at work here. the most important, in my viewpoint, is that people who eat that much meat every day tend to:
1. fill most of their plate with meat or dished containing meat (lasagna, etc, as listed) and less with produce, which is necessary for a balanced diet and key to general health.
2. eating that much meat for most people means that they have to buy the cheaper kind, because they buy too much. Which means the meat will be the kind with hormones, antibiotics, and all that stuff. Hormones, especially synthetic hormones, are linked to many kinds of cancer, which is a more and more common cause of death.
Antibiotics and overuse of OTC and prescription drugs (I bet they kept antacids handy!) wreck the liver, no doubt about that. Liver disease also often leads to death.
One positive thing about the study is that they said “eat too much meat” as a cause of death, not just eating meat in general. I hate that whole “vegetarians are healthier” spiel. I bet if you take someone who eats meat but not at every meal and not every day, but chooses good quality meat without hormone etc, and also chooses fresh produce and whole grains to complement – I bet they woulnd’t find that diet increased their risk of death.
Elisa’s last blog post..Mixed feelings and random thoughts
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Helene
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 11:31 am
Whew….all this went totally over my head. I sucked at science in school, obviously!
Helene’s last blog post..What I say vs What He Hears….
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The Lawyer Mom
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 1:30 pm
I’m going to totally fail this pop quiz. Someone is out to stop the Atkins diet. It’s that simple.
On a somewhat but not very related note, did you see the study that found arbitrarily removing ovaries during a hysterectomy increases the risk for heart disease?
The Lawyer Mom’s last blog post..Eunichasia
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themother Replies:
May 6th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Yeah, I saw that study. It’s fairy obvious that if you remove a pre-menopausal woman’s hormonal protection against heart disease, she will tend to get heart disease.
The arbitrary removal of ovaries at time of hysterectomy is one of the WORST of the many nasty things that male doctors have done to women over the centuries. When I had my hyst, the gyn handed me a permit that included the ovaries. I crossed it out. He complained that I was “tying his hands”–if he found something while he was in there, he couldn’t take it out.
I said, “NOPE! You find something, you can wake me up and we’ll discuss it.”
I never went back to him after the surgery.
But if you want a list of a bunch of other crimes perpetrated on women over the millenia, stay tuned for my Nefarious History of Motherhood series, starting Friday.
[Reply]
Drama Queen Jenner
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 4:41 pm
So I was wondering what else in their diets was monitored. Was their cholesterol checked? Did they exercise? How about vitamins?
But my real two thoughts (before clicking over to the article) were, sure, red meat can kill you – drop a side of beef on my head from 10 stories up, I bet my neck will break. And, too much red meat can kill you, sure, but too much green meat can kill you faster. (Of course I have no medical studies to back me up.)
Drama Queen Jenner’s last blog post..Never a Bride
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the Mayor
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 7:13 pm
It’s no fun being late to the party. I guess that’s what I get for being too busy to read Mother promptly.
However, since I am an expert on being practical, we could save a lot of money by skipping studies that are too vague and full of compounding variables. Eating a variety of foods in moderation, staying active physically and mentally and some proper rest makes sense to me.
Also a little butter makes everything better.
the Mayor’s last blog post..Banking "Fun"damentals
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veronica lee
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 10:47 pm
Wow, what a load of info! I was never an A student for Science so I’m really challenged at this.
veronica lee’s last blog post..x-ray art
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AmyAnne
Wednesday, 6th May 2009 at 11:31 pm
I have a problem. I only get maybe a quarter of the way into almost anything labeled “study” and I’ve already written it off. I also can’t stand commercials like the one for high fructose corn syrup (the line…”it’s fine in moderation” kills me when you can’t possibly ingest it in moderation if it is IN EVERYTHING). People start quoting these sound bites of information like fact. Often I am caught asking questions and piss off someone because they don’t have the answers.
This study had the numbers at first glance, but the reference to people kicking off between the ages of 60 & 81 – duh. Add to that the BROAD definition of red meat and the vague references like “…11% of all deaths in men and 16% of deaths in women could have been prevented if participants cut their red meat consumption to that eaten by the lowest intake group…” Huh?
Sorry. I can’t hang after I read crap like that, the compounding variable are simply freaking out of control.
AmyAnne’s last blog post..Frustrated Much?
[Reply]
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